PREVAL: Value of probabilistic PV forecasts in an operational context

Start date : 01 / 11 / 2021

End date : 30 / 04 / 2023

---

FEDER financing :

Total project budget: €73150,56

Amount of total FEDER financing: €46816,36

Amount of financing other than total FEDER: Region for €11704,09 / PIMENT own funds: €14630,11

---

Presentation, objective(s):

The PREVAL project contributes to achieving energy autonomy for the island of Reunion and the objectives of the multi-year energy plan (PPE) for Reunion. More precisely, it is a question of being able to insert the maximum amount of solar energy into the Réunion electricity network, thanks to the forecasting of the production of solar energy and the storage of this energy. A good forecast allows the network manager (EDF) to better anticipate and better plan its means of production. This same forecast also makes it possible to optimize the management of energy storage systems.

Like the trajectory of cyclones, the forecast of solar electrical energy production cannot be known with certainty. It is therefore important to characterize the uncertainty associated with the forecast. This characterization is obtained by implementing probabilistic forecasting methods. However, generating probabilistic forecasts is more complex than the methods currently used by different stakeholders.

The objective of this project is to demonstrate the interest of these probabilistic forecasts. This involves, in particular, on an operational case study (photovoltaic production farm and associated storage system) to evaluate the added value (the economic gain) which can be derived from the implementation of these probabilistic forecasts. .

---

Operation partners:

Reuniwatt

Top of page